Fall has officially arrived, and with it, a welcome return of momentum to New York real estate. It simply took its time getting here: Labor Day fell on September 7, the latest it can land, with the Jewish Holidays close behind.
September is typically the slowest month for luxury contracts and one of the busiest for new inventory. Inventory has risen 30% in the past month, yet it is still tracking 12% below last year. For buyers, it is the best selection in months.
Contracts reflect the late start, with 591 signed in September, about 14% below the September average of 687. The turn is underway, and activity typically builds through October.
Buyers are engaged, but selective. Homes above $4 million are taking a median of 139 days to go into contract, yet when a home is priced right, there is a clear meeting of the minds: more than one in fiveNew York City homes sold above asking in August.
You have likely seen the headlines about mortgage rates crossing 7% and the Fed's first hike since 2023. Rates in this range have become the norm, and at the top of the market, they matter even less. Many buyers pay cash, and higher rates only thin out the financed competition, which strengthens a cash offer.
The more important story, to me, is the city itself. New York now has more tech workers than the Bay Area for the first time, adding more than 30,000 in three years while the Bay Area lost nearly 24,000. That, far more than where rates settle, is what drives long-term demand.
For Sellers
There is more competition at the top than a month ago, and roughly half of today's inventory has sat for 90 days or more. Pricing and presentation matter from day one. If discretion is a priority, a quiet launch to a qualified audience remains an excellent option.
For Buyers
Longer marketing times give you room to negotiate, especially at the top. Look beyond what is publicly listed; some of the finest homes this fall will trade privately. When the right one appears, move decisively.
Wishing you a wonderful October, with more treats than tricks.
After a late start to the season, contracts are pacing about 14% below the September average, but the turn is underway, and with inventory still below last year, well-priced homes are finding buyers.
