The summer slowdown is running behind schedule. June closed with 1,131 contracts signed over 30 days, up 15.5% from a year earlier. The week after the Fourth brought a catch-up surge of 234 contracts.
July closed with 951 contracts signed, right in line with a year ago. Last August, I wrote that we had just seen the busiest summer for New York real estate in years. This season is running 7% ahead of it, and at 16% above the ten-year seasonal average, it is the busiest start to summer since 2021.
Supply is moving in the opposite direction. Roughly 950 new listings came to market over the past 30 days, nearly 20% below a typical July. With more homes leaving the market than arriving, active inventory, now 6,115, is on track to fall below 5,300 by Labor Day, among the lowest late-summer levels in years.
The mix is thinner still. Just 10% of last week's new listings were priced above $4 million, while that segment took 15% of signed contracts. The top of the market is absorbing more than it is being offered.
When quality is this scarce, the market splits in two. The well-positioned home draws immediate, often competitive attention, while everything else waits.
A growing share of the best product now trades quietly: off-market deals and private exclusives, shared broker to broker. July's largest contract, a $27 million Soho penthouse, never reached the public market at all. Published counts understate what is actually moving.
One more signal worth noting: financing costs are drifting up, not down. Jumbo rates are back in the mid-6% range, and futures now price a coin flip that the Fed's next move is a hike rather than a cut. The least crowded moments in this market have historically been the most rewarding ones.
For Sellers
Demand is running ahead of a normal summer, and few owners are listing against you. For a well-priced, well-presented home, August is a stronger moment than the calendar suggests. If discretion matters to you, this is an unusually good environment for a quiet launch to a qualified audience.
For Buyers
The listed market is only part of the market right now, so make sure your search includes what is trading privately. Your leverage sits with listings that have aged through the spring, and the well-positioned home still rewards decisiveness.
Enjoy the last stretch of summer. Demand is running about 13.5% ahead of the seasonal norm even deep into summer, and while well-priced properties are moving across all tiers, they require the sharpest positioning to avoid sitting on the market.
