January has revived a familiar fixation. Comparisons to 2016 are everywhere, framed as a return to a “simpler” time defined by 3.6% mortgage rates, cultural confidence, and a market that felt easier to navigate.
In New York City real estate, however, nostalgia is not the metric that matters. Performance is.
If you purchased in 2016, the data is unambiguous. In most Manhattan neighborhoods, long-term ownership was rewarded. Over the past decade, values rose steadily as neighborhoods matured, supply remained structurally constrained, and demand for quality assets endured.
Pricing tells that story clearly. On the Upper East Side, average values moved from approximately $1,333 per square foot in 2016 to $1,553 today. The Upper West Side increased from roughly $1,453 to $1,722. The West Village rose from about $2,059 to $2,366. Different neighborhoods followed different paths, but patient ownership produced consistent results.
Activity reinforces the point. In January 2016, Manhattan recorded 608 contracts signed. This January, that number reached 709. Despite higher rates and far more selective buyers, more deals are getting done today than during what many remember as a benchmark year.
What has changed is ease. In early 2016, inventory was slightly tighter, and sellers benefited from a warmer listing environment. A useful way to think about this is the balance between homes coming to market and homes actually going into contract. In 2016, that balance increasingly favored sellers as the year progressed. Today, that ratio is cooler. Buyers are more deliberate, pricing is scrutinized, and execution matters.
Was 2016 a better market? It was easier.
Today’s market is more disciplined, more transparent, and ultimately more resilient. Well-positioned homes trade, often decisively. Others wait.
The lesson from 2016 is not nostalgia. It is strategy. New York remains a long-term market, and history continues to reward patience, quality, and precision.
Supply is still 5.5% below last year’s already-low levels, keeping inventory tight as we approach the spring season. New listings were lighter than expected, likely influenced by the cold weather. On the demand side, we’ve seen a 0.4% decrease in contract signed activity as compared to last January. The spring ramp up isn’t here yet, but definitely upcoming.
